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There's actually a correlation between how a team does in the preseason and how it does in the regular season, at least in the last five seasons (2004-05 through 2008-09).
Over that time, 56 of the 86 teams (65.1 percent) who finished with a .500 record or better in the preseason made the playoffs. And just 24 of the 64 teams (37.5 percent) who finished with a record under .500 in the preseason made it to the postseason.
Of the 20 teams that have reached the conference finals in the last five seasons, 16 had a .500 record or better in the preseason.
Of course, in the preseason, a couple of garbage time buckets can determine any particular game, and there's a lot of garbage time. So it's hard to judge between a team that went 4-4 and one that went 3-5. But it is apparent that there's a difference between a team that goes 7-1 in the preseason and one that goes 1-7.
