Muddle in Middle of 2009-2010 Eastern Playoff Field

A look at the East's fortified middle
Muddle in the Middle
by Keith Langlois

Barring calamitous injuries, the top three teams in the Eastern Conference are about as clearly defined as they could be in mid-September: Cleveland, Orlando and Boston, in some order. Atlanta, based on its performance last season, its retention of key free agents and the room for growth in several key players, is the odds-on choice of those likely to push the big three.

That’s half the playoff field conceded by objective observers, if not quite by the 11 other Eastern teams chasing the Cavs, Magic, Celtics and Hawks.

The Bucks, Nets and Knicks look like relatively safe bets to be calculating lottery odds by the All-Star break. Charlotte and Indiana didn’t get enough done in the off-season to make most think they’ll be long for the playoff chase.

That leaves six teams for the final four playoff berths: Detroit, Miami, Chicago, Washington, Toronto and Philadelphia.

As you’d expect of teams uncertain of their likelihood to be printing playoff tickets, all have some question marks that will decide whether they’ll be closer to 50 wins than 30.

Here’s a look at the major questions facing the five teams the Pistons will be watching more closely than the rest in the standings:


•Chicago – The Bulls coalesced last season after the trade-deadline deal that netted them John Salmons and Brad Miller from Sacramento. They moved coltish lottery picks Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah into the starting lineup and got away with their offensive shortcomings because of their athleticism, upping the tempo of games. That played to the strength of rookie point guard Derrick Rose, who finished strong.
But Ben Gordon’s scoring carried the Bulls to a lot of wins. They can’t make that up unless Luol Deng comes back and starts playing like the guy who induced the Bulls to give him a contract that has five years and about $62 million to run.


•Miami – Pat Riley put the Heat in great position to be the major beneficiaries of the Summer of LeBron by not making any desperation moves this summer to take on bad contracts in attempts to appease Dwyane Wade.

But Riley’s patience could test Wade’s. If the middle of the East – the teams we’re talking about here, essentially – is as much improved as it appears to be, the roster that carried the Heat to the No. 5 playoff seed a year ago could leave them five spots lower this season.

The Heat need Jermaine O’Neal to stay healthy and productive at center (which he hasn’t been in five years), Mario Chalmers and Chris Quinn to improbably hold their own at point guard, and young players like Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook to take great leaps forward toward their tantalizing potential. That’s a lot of ifs. Miami could take the biggest tumble in the East – unless Wade somehow matches the remarkable production levels he hit last year while avoiding injury and utter exhaustion. Nobody is more critical to his team’s bottom line than this guy.


•Washington – Backed by Abe Pollin’s pocketbook and willingness to go deep into tax territory, Ernie Grunfeld made bold moves this summer to put the Wizards in position for a dramatic turnaround from their 19-win 2008-09 season.

The Wiz are facing some potentially monumental cap problems down the road – they have $49 million committed to just five players in 2010-11, when the cap itself could be just a shade greater, and have $156 million committed to their big three – and they’re about $9 million over the tax line for the current season.

That puts enormous pressure on Flip Saunders to get Washington to the postseason and do some damage this season, but he’s got the roster to do it. The big question mark, of course, is Gilbert Arenas, who has essentially missed two full seasons with knee problems. All reports on his summer progress, including ones from Saunders, are glowing. But Washington needs more than a healthy Arenas; it needs an Arenas who can play up to the six-year, $111 million contract he signed a year ago – an MVP-type contract.

If he’s that player, scoring 25 a game and doing it efficiently, and Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison also avoid the injury that’s whacked them over the years, the firepower Washington added by trading the No. 5 pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye makes this one of the deepest rosters in the conference.


•Toronto – No roster got churned to the degree Toronto’s did over the summer. The Pistons added eight new faces; Toronto added 10. The most significant addition is Hedo Turkoglu, who helped carry Orlando to the NBA Finals but days later was all but terminated by the Magic when they swung a draft-day deal for Vince Carter.

Some see signing Turkoglu as a home-run deal for the Raptors, but there are some legitimate concerns about the makeover. Turkoglu flourished the past two years in Orlando, but his career had leveled off before that and San Antonio – regarded by many as the gold standard in player evaluation – let him go without a fight as a 25-year-old. It will be interesting to see how he fits on a roster without a Dwight Howard-like presence in the middle.

The Raptors are also banking on production from unproven players like Marco Belinelli and DeMar DeRozan, who as of now are the options at shooting guard.

•Philadelphia – The first question with Philly is the same as it was a year ago: How does a team that’s played its best basketball the past two years when it’s pushed tempo make it work when the player it signed to carry the scoring load, Elton Brand, thrives in a half-court setting?

Brand now has two major surgeries in his recent past – an Achilles tear and a shoulder repair. He’s said over the summer that he feels like he’s back to the player he was pre-Achilles, but we’ll see once the bullets start flying.

This year, Philly has another dark cloud hovering: point guard. Cap concerns forced the Sixers to let underrated Andre Miller walk. The plan for now is to let mercurial scorer Louis Williams and raw UCLA freshman Jrue Holiday share the position with pedestrian veteran Royal Ivey as a spare part. That could make the Sixers vulnerable to becoming one of the two from this group likely to miss the cut.